# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-02-26 · 18 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26FEB26 · as_of 2026-10-25T21:23:45Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2026-02-26 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-26FEB26 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Reward	reward	11	11	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.68	hist	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	11	6	0.55	nnnYnYYYnY	0.49	hist	no
Fiji	fiji	1	1	1	Y	0.43	hist	no
Fire	fire	11	6	0.55	YnYYYnnnnY	0.39	hist	yes
Puzzle	puzzle	11	4	0.36	nnnYnnYnnY	0.37	hist	yes
Flint	flint	7	4	0.57	YYYYnnn	0.34	hist	yes
Key	key	10	2	0.2	nnYnnnnnnY	0.3	hist	yes
Medic / Medical	medic|medical	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.29	hist	yes
Alliance	alliance	12	2	0.17	YnnnnnnnnY	0.29	hist	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	7	1	0.14	nnnnnnY	0.29	hist	no
Trust	trust	12	3	0.25	YnnnnnnYnn	0.25	hist	no
Water	water	1	0	0	n	0.25	hist	yes
Fish / Fishing	fish|fishing	2	0	0	nn	0.22	hist	yes
Hunger / Hungry	hunger|hungry	11	1	0.09	nnYnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Advantage	advantage	0	0			0.31	prior	yes
Billie Eilish	billie eilish	0	0			0.31	prior	no
MrBeast / Beast	beast|mrbeast	0	0			0.31	prior	no
Strategy / Strategize / Strategic	strategic|strategize|strategy	0	0			0.31	prior	yes