# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2025-12-11 · 13 words · K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25DEC11 · as_of 2026-10-25T00:11:36Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-12-11 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXSURVIVORMENTION-25DEC11 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jeff Probst says {word} as part of Survivor Season 49 Episode 12, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Reward	reward	9	9	1	YYYYYYYYY	0.69	yes
Immunity Idol	immunity idol	9	5	0.56	YnnnYnYYY	0.53	no
Blindside / Blind Side	blind side|blindside	9	4	0.44	YnnnnnYYY	0.48	no
Fire	fire	9	5	0.56	YYnYYYnnn	0.34	no
Puzzle	puzzle	9	3	0.33	YnnnYnnYn	0.32	no
Trust	trust	10	3	0.3	YnYnnnnnnY	0.31	no
Target	target	10	2	0.2	nnnnYnnnYn	0.28	no
Risk	risk	10	2	0.2	nYnnnnnnYn	0.26	no
Key	key	8	1	0.12	nnYnnnnn	0.18	no
Hungry / Hunger	hunger|hungry	9	1	0.11	nnnYnnnnn	0.18	no
Alliance	alliance	10	1	0.1	nnYnnnnnnn	0.16	no
Comeback / Come Back	come back|comeback	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.16	no
Pressure	pressure	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.16	no