Mark Rutte: Press conference, Jul 8, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Rutte say during his press conference?
Markets
12 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 77%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | Yes | 71%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ally / Alliance | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 58%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Arctic | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Spain | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26JUL08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP