Will Mark Rutte say “Ally / Alliance”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Ally / Alliance” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Rutte
Ally / Alliance
- Probability
- 67% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | Ally / Alliance |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Ally / Alliance | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 22, 2026 | Ally / Alliance | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Mark Rutte say “Ally / Alliance”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Ally / Alliance” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Rutte says “Ally / Alliance” next time?
- 67%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Rutte: ‘Ally / Alliance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-rutte/words/alliance-or-ally (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-rutte&word=alliance%20%2F%20ally · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-rutte&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP