Will Mark Rutte say “Arctic”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Arctic” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Sep 24, 2026), since fewer than 2 press conferences have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Rutte
Arctic
- Probability
- 59% · n=4
- Settled
- 3/4 (75%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 1 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Mark Rutte say “Arctic”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Mark Rutte said “Arctic” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 9, 2026 (75%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Rutte says “Arctic” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Rutte: ‘Arctic’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-rutte/words/arctic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-rutte&word=arctic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-rutte&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP