Will NASA say “Mars”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, NASA said “Mars” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 30, 2026 (60%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 75% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
75%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
NASA
Mars
- Probability
- 75% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for NASA yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does NASA say “Mars”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, NASA said “Mars” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 30, 2026 (60%), most recently on Aug 14, 2026.
- What is the probability NASA says “Mars” next time?
- 75%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “NASA: ‘Mars’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/nasa/words/mar (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nasa&word=mar · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nasa&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP