Will “Lie” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Lie” was said at the Political debates on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 16, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- any candidate
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Lie
- Probability
- 57% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often is “Lie” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “Lie” was said at the Political debates on 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Oct 16, 2025.
- What is the probability “Lie” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Lie’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/lie (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=lie · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP