Will “Transgender” be said at the next Political debates?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Transgender” was said at the Political debates on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 23, 2025 (33%), most recently on Feb 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- any candidate
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Political debates
Transgender
- Probability
- 49% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
Next listing counts: any candidate
We don’t have transcripts for Political debates yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | Transgender |  Kalshi | No |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Transgender | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Transgender | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Transgender” said at the Political debates?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Transgender” was said at the Political debates on 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 23, 2025 (33%), most recently on Feb 18, 2026.
- What is the probability “Transgender” is said at the Political debates next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: any candidate.
Cite parrot.markets, “Political debates: ‘Transgender’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/political-debates/words/transgender (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=political-debates&word=transgender · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=political-debates&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP