# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2025-10-23 · 41 words · K k:KXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-25OCT23 · as_of 2026-10-25T04:30:05Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2025-10-23 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNYCMAYORDEBATEMENTION-25OCT23 ({word} = w of K rows): If The Participating Candidates says {word} as part of NYC Mayoral Debate on October 22nd, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Rikers	riker	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.73	hist	yes
Homeless	homeless	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.72	hist	yes
Subway	subway	1	2	2	1	YY	0.69	hist	yes
Defund	defund	1	0	0			0.68	hist	yes
Ackman	ackman	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	no
Economy	economy	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	yes
Eric / Adams	adam|eric	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	yes
Gaza	gaza	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	no
Kathy / Hochul	hochul|kathy	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	yes
Lie	lie	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	no
Puppet	puppet	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	yes
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	1	1	1	Y	0.64	hist	yes
Pizza	pizza	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.53	hist	no
Capitalist / Capitalism	capitalism|capitalist	1	0	0			0.45	hist	no
Rat	rat	1	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	no
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	1	2	0	0	nn	0.42	hist	yes
Czar	czar	1	1	0	0	n	0.42	hist	no
Donation	donation	1	1	0	0	n	0.42	hist	yes
Horse	horse	1	1	0	0	n	0.42	hist	no
Luigi / Mangione	luigi|mangione	1	1	0	0	n	0.42	hist	no
Woke	woke	1	1	0	0	n	0.42	hist	no
Congestion	congestion	1	2	0	0	nn	0.38	hist	no
Transgender	transgender	1	0	0			0.38	hist	no
Italian	italian	1	2	0	0	nn	0.37	hist	yes
Fentanyl	fentanyl	1	2	0	0	nn	0.36	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.32	hist	no
Amazon	amazon	1	0	0			0.54	prior	no
Billionaire (3+ times)	billionaire#3	3	0	0			0.54	prior	no
Ebike / E-Bike	e bike|ebike	1	0	0			0.54	prior	no
Florida	florida	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
Grocery (3+ times)	grocery#3	3	0	0			0.54	prior	no
Infrastructure	infrastructure	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
Marijuana / Weed	marijuana|weed	1	0	0			0.54	prior	no
Mental Health	mental health	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
Minimum Wage	minimum wage	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
Misdemeanor	misdemeanor	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
MTA	mta	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
One Percent	one percent	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
Prostitution	prostitution	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
Protest	protest	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes
Taxi	taxi	1	0	0			0.54	prior	yes