What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Iran” next time?

22%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Iran”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Iran” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani did not say “Iran” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 22% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

22%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
Streak: not said the last 4 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 09:18 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Iran

Probability: 22% · n=4
Settled: 0/4 (0%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Council Member Lincoln RestlerotherMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…want to just firstly acknowledge Linda, Sandy, in particular, led nonprofit organizations. I ran a nonprofit organization. Many of us in the Council have been…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.