Will “Ballroom / Pool” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ballroom / Pool” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 12, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
Ballroom / Pool
- Probability
- 41% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ballroom / Pool |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ballroom / Pool | Kalshi | No |
| May 12, 2026 | Ballroom / Pool | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often is “Ballroom / Pool” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, “Ballroom / Pool” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 3 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 12, 2026 (33%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026.
- What is the probability “Ballroom / Pool” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Ballroom / Pool’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/ballroom-or-pool (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=ballroom%20%2F%20pool · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP