# Jerome Powell (jerome-powell) · speech 2025-04-16 · 13 words · K k:KXJPOWMENTION-25APR16 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:31:34Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-04-16 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2024-05-01..2025-03-19 (under 2 speech transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXJPOWMENTION-25APR16 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jerome Powell says {word} as part of his Economic Club of Chicago Speech including any immediate Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Recession	recession	1	1	1	Y	8	4	0.53	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	1	1	Y	8	3	0.53	hist	yes
Reciprocal	reciprocal	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.36	hist	no
Stagflation	stagflation	1	0	0	n	8	2	0.36	hist	no
China	china	0	0			8	2	0.44	prior	no
Dollar	dollar	0	0			8	4	0.44	prior	yes
Egg	egg	0	0			8	0	0.44	prior	no
Employment	employment	0	0			8	8	0.44	prior	yes
Growth	growth	0	0			8	8	0.44	prior	yes
Inflation	inflation	0	0			8	8	0.44	prior	yes
Production	production	0	0			8	0	0.44	prior	yes
Spending	spending	0	0			8	8	0.44	prior	yes
Yield / Curve	curve|yield	0	0			8	3	0.44	prior	no