Jacob Frey: Keynote, May 19, 2026
Kalshi What will Jacob Frey say during the CAP IDEAS Conference?
Markets
12 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / DHS | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Discriminate / Discriminating / Discrimination | No | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXFREYMENTION-26MAY19 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP