# Jacob Frey (jacob-frey) · keynote 2026-05-19 · 12 words · K k:KXFREYMENTION-26MAY19 · as_of 2026-10-24T10:36:10Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-19 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-18 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXFREYMENTION-26MAY19 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jacob Frey says {word} as part of 2026 CAP IDEAS Conference , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.56	hist	no
Trump	trump	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
ICE / DHS	dhs|ice	0	0			1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Discriminate / Discriminating / Discrimination	discriminate|discriminating|discrimination	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	0	0.53	hist	no
Investigate / Investigated / Investigation	investigate|investigated|investigation	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	0	0.53	hist	no
Republican	republican	4	2	0.5	nnYY	1	0	0.5	hist	yes
Protest / Protester	protest|protester	4	2	0.5	YYnn	1	1	0.47	hist	no
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	4	2	0.5	YYnn	1	1	0.47	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	3	1	0.33	Ynn	1	0	0.42	hist	no
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.41	hist	no
Immigrant / Immigration	immigrant|immigration	0	0			1	0	0.49	prior	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	0	0			1	0	0.49	prior	no