Will Jacob Frey say “Republican”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jacob Frey said “Republican” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 15, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).

55%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 3 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jacob-frey&word=republican

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jacob Frey

Republican

Probability
55% · n=6
Settled
3/6 (50%)
Last 1 transcript
said in 0 of 1

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

MARGARET BRENNANhostFace the Nation (CBS), January 18, 2026 · Jan 18, 2026In transcript

…Mark Warner, and the head of a bipartisan congressional group supporting NATO, Republican Mike Turner, will both be here. It's all just ahead on Face…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Jacob Frey say during the CAP IDEAS Conference? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Jacob Frey say during the State of the Swamp? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Jacob Frey say during his MS NOW interview? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Jacob Frey say during his NewsNation interview? · settled no

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What will Jacob Frey say during Face the Nation? · not said

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What will Jacob Frey say during Fox & Friends? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
May 19, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Feb 25, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Feb 13, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jan 22, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jan 19, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Jan 15, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–

Questions

How often does Jacob Frey say “Republican”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jacob Frey said “Republican” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 15, 2026 (50%), most recently on May 19, 2026.
What is the probability Jacob Frey says “Republican” next time?
55%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jacob Frey: ‘Republican’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jacob-frey/words/republican (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jacob-frey&word=republican · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jacob-frey&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP