Will Jacob Frey say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jacob Frey said “Fraud” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 15, 2026 (20%), most recently on Jan 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 episode; Jan 18, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jacob Frey
Fraud
- Probability
- 35% · n=5
- Settled
- 1/5 (20%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 episode); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…very bad track record. He – all this billions of dollars of fraud was stolen from people under his watch. He allowed it to happen.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jacob Frey say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jacob Frey said “Fraud” at 1 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 15, 2026 (20%), most recently on Jan 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Jacob Frey says “Fraud” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jacob Frey: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jacob-frey/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jacob-frey&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jacob-frey&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP