# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-10-21 · 32 words in 33 rows (listings that settled differently) · K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26OCT21 · P p:what-will-be-said-during-the-michigan-us-senate-debate-october-21 · as_of 2026-10-24T06:37:07Z
# scope K any_candidate; P anyone · n/y settled before 2026-10-21 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26OCT21 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of Iowa Press Debates: Governor originally scheduled for October 21, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-be-said-during-the-michigan-us-senate-debate-october-21 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is said by Abdul El-Sayed, Mike Rogers, or a moderator during the specified appearance.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Data Center	data center	1	K	15	14	0.93	YYYYYYYYYY	0.87	hist	void
Medicaid	medicaid	1	K	0	0			0.79	hist	void
Budget / Deficit	budget|deficit	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	0.76	hist	void
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	K	27	17	0.63	YYYYYYYYYY	0.75	hist	void
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	K	3	3	1	YYY	0.71	hist	void
Ethanol / E15	e15|ethanol	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.69	hist	void
Voucher / School Choice	school choice|voucher	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.69	hist	void
Tariff	tariff	1	K	13	9	0.69	nnYnnYYYYY	0.68	hist	void
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	K	17	12	0.71	YnnYYYYnnY	0.63	hist	void
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	K	11	6	0.55	nYnYYnnYYY	0.59	hist	void
Trump 10+ times	trump#10	10	P	2	2	1	YY	0.58	hist	yes
Palestine / Palestinian	palestine|palestinian	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.58	hist	no
AIPAC	aipac	1	P	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.54	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	K	16	8	0.5	nYnnnnYnYY	0.52	hist	void
Fraud	fraud	1	P	16	8	0.5	nYnnnnYnYY	0.5	hist	yes
Genocide	genocide	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	no
Abortion	abortion	1	K	6	1	0.17	nnnnnY	0.36	hist	void
Zohran / Mamdani	mamdani|zohran	1	P	3	0	0	nnn	0.33	hist	no
Cancer (3+ times)	cancer#3	3	K	0	0			0.6	prior	void
Eminent Domain	eminent domain	1	K	0	0			0.6	prior	void
Glyphosate / Roundup	glyphosate|roundup	1	K	0	0			0.6	prior	void
Nitrate	nitrate	1	K	0	0			0.6	prior	void
Pesticide / Herbicide	herbicide|pesticide	1	K	0	0			0.6	prior	void
Property Tax (3+ times)	property tax#3	3	K	0	0			0.6	prior	void
Right To Repair	right to repair	1	K	0	0			0.6	prior	void
Vaccine / Vaccination	vaccination|vaccine	1	K	0	0			0.6	prior	void
Canada 3+ times	canada#3	3	P	0	0			0.5	prior	yes
Flock	flock	1	P	0	0			0.5	prior	no
Hasan / Piker	hasan|piker	1	P	0	0			0.5	prior	no
Israel / Israeli 10+ times	israel|israeli#10	10	P	0	0			0.5	prior	no
Muslim Brotherhood 3+ times	muslim brotherhood#3	3	P	0	0			0.5	prior	no
Sharia	sharia	1	P	0	0			0.5	prior	no
Yacht	yacht	1	P	0	0			0.5	prior	no