Bernie Sanders: Rally, May 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his Rochester rally?
Markets
27 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Yes | 81%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 77%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Paycheck to Paycheck | Yes | 74%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 72%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Authoritarian / Authoritarianism | Yes | 71%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire 3+ times | Yes | 69%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 69%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 66%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 64%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Amazon / Bezos | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 56%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Bernie | Yes | 54%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Netanyahu | Yes | 51%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Tuition | No | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 56%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | 49%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | 48%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Prediction Market | No | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 21%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26MAY02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP