Bernie Sanders: Rally, Jul 18, 2026
Kalshi What will Bernie say during his Detroit rally?
Markets
22 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 79%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | Yes | 78%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Vermont / Vermonter | Yes | 75%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | Yes | 75%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 62%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Bezos | Yes | 60%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Netanyahu | Yes | 56%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 55%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | Yes | 54%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 48%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bernie | No | 60%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Wall Street | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trillionaire | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | No | 48%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | 38%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 37%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 34%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ChatGPT / OpenAI | No | 24%n=9 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBERNIEMENTION-26JUL18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP