Will Donald Trump say “Deranged / Derangement”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deranged / Derangement” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 27, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 70% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Deranged / Derangement
- Probability
- 70% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
We also have to defeat deranged Angie Nixon, who voted in favor of deadly sanctuary cities, and she even voted against punishing illegal aliens who…
…kind of a guy than me. But running against me with Trump derangements, they would consider this to be the single greatest ad in history."…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Deranged / Derangement |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deranged / Derangement | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Deranged / Derangement | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Deranged / Derangement | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Deranged / Derangement”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deranged / Derangement” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 27, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Deranged / Derangement” next time?
- 70%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Deranged / Derangement’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deranged-or-derangement (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deranged%20%2F%20derangement · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP