ABC World News Tonight, October 16, 2026
On the Oct 16, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 8 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 13 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 8 settled yes · our count agreed on 13 of 15- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 11 | 11 | ✓ | 57%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla / SpaceX | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 36%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Strait Of Hormuz | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 57%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Oregon | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Flood / Flooding | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 62%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 47%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Zacharia | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 49%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 5 | 5 | ✗ | 73%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Pope Leo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Series | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Measles | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 26%n=10 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
2 matches for “Tornado”; 1 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…to Philadelphia, right up to New York City. Millions bracing for flash flooding, 70-mile-per-hour gusts and tornadoes after the same storm system pummeled the south.
Where the listed words were said
…the Strait of Hormuz. Tonight, we have exclusive access where they're monitoring Iranian missile and drone threats. Here in this country, the young college football…
And flying cars. Tesla tonight unveiling its new vehicle, cars with rocket thrusters, zero to 60 in less than a second. Whit Johnson shows us…
Tonight to the Strait of Hormuz in this war in Iran, our team on the USS George Washington carrier group with exclusive access where they're…
…American forces prevented Iran from exporting at least $25 billion worth of oil. The Islamic regime is clearly feeling the economic pain, and the IRGC…
Oregon. Authorities holding a news conference just a short time ago sharing with us what they could about the three young boys and their 25-year-old…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-10-16:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-10-16:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP