What is the probability “OpenAI / Astra” is said on World News Tonight next time?

35%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: any host or reporter.

Will “OpenAI / Astra” be said on World News Tonight next time?

Name: World News Tonight: “OpenAI / Astra” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, “OpenAI / Astra” was not said on World News Tonight in any of the 2 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Oct 13, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, any host or reporter) in 1.

35%from settlement history only · n=2counts: any host or reporter

Last 10: 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
Streak: not said the last 2 times
Counts: any host or reporter

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 11:13 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

ABC World News Tonight

OpenAI / Astra

Probability: 35% · n=2
Settled: 0/2 (0%)
Last 8 episodes: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: any host or reporter

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Speaker not labelledreporterABC World News Tonight, October 13, 2026 · Oct 13, 2026 · 20:52In transcript

…was working in the U.S. as an engineer for artificial intelligence giant OpenAI. He's accused of planting a listening device behind a TV to spy…