Face the Nation (CBS), June 21, 2026
On the Jun 21, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 5 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
12 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 10 | 33 | ✓ | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 9 | 16 | ✓ | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 4 | 6 | ✓ | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 2 | 6 | ✓ | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 1 | 4 | ✓ | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 0 | 10 | ✓ | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Save America Act | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 23 | ✓ | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
6 matches for “Hormuz”; 4 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…to avert economic catastrophe due to the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the president negotiates an agreement with Iran that's far short of the…
…this deal fails, President Trump is going to take the Strait of Hormuz over by force. The United States will control the Strait of Hormuz.…
…in the Mideast. And if Iran contests control of the Strait of Hormuz by the United States, we will obliterate them. So, to all the…
…We see reports that there are tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz now. Does Iran control the strait? And is there a way the…
Where the listed words were said
…But we're going to pick up where we left off. And Donald Trump is going to empower me and others to jump-start what we –…
…to get Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords to end the Arab-Israeli conflict in 2026. And if Iran continues to attack Israel and Lebanon,…
…think Clayton should be the new DNI. President Trump was told that Democrats were not going to support FISA reauthorization, and he got mad and…
Well, for – for about two years, Margaret, in case you missed this, I went to Riyadh and Jerusalem, working on normalization with President Biden.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/face-the-nation:2026-06-21:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=face-the-nation:2026-06-21:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP