United Airlines (UAL): FY26 Q1 earnings call, Apr 22, 2026
On its Apr 22, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q1), United Airlines said 9 of the 17 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 17 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
17 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 17 of 17- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 74%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:12, Record | – |
| Oil | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 3:02, Oil | – |
| On-Time / On Time | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 90%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:36, On-Time / On Time | – |
| Starlink | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 88%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 15:47, Starlink | – |
| Middle East | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 33%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 25:47, Middle East | – |
| Relax Row | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 14:13, Relax Row | – |
| Newark | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 93%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 30:29, Newark | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 72%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 6:26, Shutdown / Shut Down | – |
| Weather | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 40%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:20, Weather | – |
| ATC / Air Traffic Control | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 72%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Holiday | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 67%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Union | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| JetBlue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| American Airlines | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| World Cup | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 17%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Nonstop / Non-Stop | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 16%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
3 matches for “Oil”; 3 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…as quickly as possible and to achieve double-digit pre-tax margins next year. Oil is incredibly volatile right now, but because we think we're moving towards…
…goes, that the pricing increases hold. It probably won't hold 100% if oil normalizes. I told the team earlier today, and it's just my guess,…
…And that is unsustainable in the long run. Something had to change. It's unfortunate it had to be an oil crisis, but here we are.
Where the listed words were said
…and good morning. During the first quarter of 2026, United carried a record number of passengers while also navigating a challenging operating environment. The quarter…
…In the first quarter, we continued our streak of ranking first in on-time departures among the eight largest U.S. carriers. During the quarter, United's per-seat…
…loyal customers. These new initiatives, plus previous initiatives like Signature Interior and Starlink, are additions expected to be largely rolled out in two years. The…
We compete with some really good airlines in the Middle East and Asia, and they have some advantages that we don't have, and like I…
Sixth, we announced Relax Row, our latest product innovation for young families on global routes a few weeks ago. Relax Row is a main cabin…
…points are being absorbed and passed through, and volumes are increasing. For United, you'll recall we had the unique headwind last year related to Newark.
…TSA employees who showed up to keep us safe during the government shutdown. We have also improved our disruption communications by embedding live maps directly…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/united-airlines:2026-04-22:earnings_call · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=united-airlines:2026-04-22:earnings_call · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP