Will United Airlines say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
United Airlines did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 2, 6, 1, 0, 0 times. As of Oct 24, 2026, United Airlines said “Shutdown / Shut Down” on 3 of 5 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (60%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=5, from settlement history blended with transcripts), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- company speakers + operator
- Market
- 30¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
United Airlines
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 50% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last calls
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: company speakers + operator
Counts: company speakers + operator
1 counted (1 in prepared remarks, 0 in Q&A).
…TSA employees who showed up to keep us safe during the government shutdown. We have also improved our disruption communications by embedding live maps directly…
Counts: company speakers + operator
6 counted (4 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A).
…Promoter Score. And during the month of November, amid an unprecedented government shutdown and real-time flight reductions, we had the best NPS month in the…
…airports due to staffing and system constraints from the prolonged U.S. government shutdown. We work closely with FAA leadership to swiftly implement the reductions, and…
Counts: company speakers + operator
2 counted (0 in prepared remarks, 2 in Q&A); 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
…we calibrated the range of earnings per share for Q4 with government shutdown in mind. It's one active [indiscernible], but we've got reasonable room there…
…this, but I think there hasn't been much talk of the government shutdown so far. If you can just help quantify what you're seeing out…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How many times did United Airlines say “Shutdown / Shut Down” on its last earnings call?
- United Airlines did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” on its Oct 21, 2026 call (FY26 Q3); it said it on 3 of its last 8 calls: 0, 0, 0, 2, 6, 1, 0, 0 times.
- How often does United Airlines say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, United Airlines said “Shutdown / Shut Down” on 3 of 5 calls with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2025 (60%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability United Airlines says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history blended with transcripts (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: company speakers + operator.
Cite parrot.markets, “United Airlines: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/earnings/UAL/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=united-airlines&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=united-airlines&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP