Face the Nation (CBS), February 8, 2026
On the Feb 8, 2026 episode of Face the Nation, 9 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15
Kalshibacktest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 6 | 18 | ✓ | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tulsi / Gabbard | Yes | 6 | 11 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 2 | 5 | ✓ | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 2 | 7 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 2 | 17 | ✓ | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 1 | 19 | ✓ | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 1 | 9 | ✓ | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nationalize / Federalize | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | 0 | 3 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · CBS News, Face the Nation transcript · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
…very key if there were communication liaisons in all the communities that ICE has, meaning, not changing policy, just sharing communication from the community, let's…
…in this case is, it almost seems Nixonian. If the president asked Gabbard to show up down in Georgia on a domestic political investigation, first…
…alone? It shouldn't be that way. And that's what we're seeing. Secretary Noem has been very clear, very clear on trying to build these relationships…
Well, the front door was via an app that Biden knew exactly what he was doing, and he created this huge mess and now President…
…successful. The other part of it, too, is to talk about legal immigration. The president has mentioned this many times. Last week he – there…
… and putting Republicans in charge, counter to the Constitution. We've seen these activities in Georgia, where could there be some effort that suddenly gives…
…this was a bipartisan vote. And all of a sudden now, the Democrats are all trying to hold the country hostage. I will tell you…
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