Will “ICE / National Guard” be said on Face the Nation next time?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “ICE / National Guard” was said on Face the Nation in 4 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 12, 2026 (100%), most recently on Feb 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Face the Nation
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 42% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…all, a national rent stabilization standard, raising the federal minimum wage, abolishing ICE, and a 5 percent annual wealth tax on billionaires. If you win,…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas. Then: ICE deportation tactics are back in the spotlight following an ICE- involved shooting…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
And Congress ought to be – Congress ought to get up off its ice-cold lazy butt and cut it itself. But since we're not…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Border Patrol. They support restrictions on immigration. They don't like what's happening with ICE, and they especially aren't happy with the state of the economy.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes | 9 |
| Feb 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jan 27, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 16 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often is “ICE / National Guard” said on Face the Nation?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “ICE / National Guard” was said on Face the Nation in 4 of 4 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 12, 2026 (100%), most recently on Feb 8, 2026.
- What is the probability “ICE / National Guard” is said on Face the Nation next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Face the Nation: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/face-the-nation/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=face-the-nation&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=face-the-nation&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP