NYT DealBook Summit, Dec 4, 2025
At the NYT DealBook Summit on Dec 4, 2025, 19 of the 44 words Kalshi listed were said.
Updated
Markets
44 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AGI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Energy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regulation / Regulatory | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Superintelligence / Super Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bubble | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deficit | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Private Credit | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Volatility | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bitcoin | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Delaware | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prediction Market | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Competition | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drone | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Government Contract | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lethal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nvidia | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Warp Speed | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Abundance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bioweapon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Climate Change | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot Dog | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Private Market / Private Equity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Acquisition | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Blockchain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Doge / Dogecoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ethereum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Memecoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Perpetual Futures / Perp | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tokenized Equity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wallet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/nyt-dealbook-summit:2025-12-04:panel · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=nyt-dealbook-summit:2025-12-04:panel · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP