Will Alex Karp say “Russia / Ukraine”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Alex Karp said “Russia / Ukraine” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Alex Karp
Russia / Ukraine
- Probability
- 23% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Alex Karp yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | Russia / Ukraine |  Kalshi | No |
| Dec 4, 2025 | Russia / Ukraine | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Alex Karp say “Russia / Ukraine”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Alex Karp said “Russia / Ukraine” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 4, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Alex Karp says “Russia / Ukraine” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Alex Karp: ‘Russia / Ukraine’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/alex-karp/words/russia-or-ukraine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=alex-karp&word=russia%20%2F%20ukraine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=alex-karp&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP