Dario Amodei
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 12 word markets on Dario Amodei’s appearances since 2025, on 12 different words.
History Wall
1–12 of 12, most settled first| Word | Dec 4 ’25latest | Last 1 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGI | Settled yes: AGI, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China | Settled yes: China, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Economy / Economic | Settled yes: Economy / Economic, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Energy | Settled yes: Energy, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| OpenAI | Settled yes: OpenAI, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Regulation / Regulatory | Settled yes: Regulation / Regulatory, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Superintelligence / Super Intelligence | Settled yes: Superintelligence / Super Intelligence, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tax | Settled yes: Tax, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Abundance | Settled no: Abundance, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bioweapon | Settled no: Bioweapon, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Climate Change | Settled no: Climate Change, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Robot Dog | Settled no: Robot Dog, Dec 4 ’25 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 1Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | KeynoteWhat will Dario Amodei say during the NYT DealBook Summit? | no transcript | 12 | 8 yes · 4 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Dario Amodei: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business/dario-amodei (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/dario-amodei · words: /api/v1/history?entity=dario-amodei · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP