Will Donald Trump say “Investigation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Investigation” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2026 (60%), most recently on Sep 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 posts windows have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Investigation
- Probability
- 50% · n=5
- Settled
- 3/5 (60%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…dismantled and destroyed and demolished over 20 compounds. The Federal Bureau of Investigation, along with our partners at DOJ and the United States Attorney's offices,…
…We are now pursuing dozens of cases against those folks, including criminal investigations. We also deferred a half a billion dollars so far from Minnesota…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Investigation |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Investigation | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Investigation | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Investigation | Polymarket | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Investigation | Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Investigation”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Investigation” at 3 of 5 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2026 (60%), most recently on Sep 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Investigation” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Investigation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/investigation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=investigation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP