What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Pothole” next time?

57%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Pothole”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Pothole” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Pothole” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 12, 2026 (75%), most recently on Apr 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

57%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 00:34 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Pothole

Probability: 57% · n=4
Settled: 3/4 (75%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Announces New NYU Quantum Fabrication Facility, First-of-Its-Kind Partnership To Give City a Stake in Emerging Industry · Oct 14, 2026In transcript

…back pay for 260,000 delivery workers. It's hard to attack more than 220,000 potholes being filled. It's hard to attack that kind of a record.