What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “Billion” next time?

65%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Zohran Mamdani say “Billion”?

Name: Zohran Mamdani: “Billion” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “Billion” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 28, 2026 (100%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 65% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.

65%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only

Last 10: 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
Streak: said the last 4 times
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 07:00 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Zohran Mamdani

Billion

Probability: 65% · n=4
Settled: 4/4 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 3 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Re-Opens Edenwald’s Community, Senior and Child Care Centers · Oct 23, 2026In transcript

…plan, Block by Block, we vowed to transform NYCHA with a $5.6 billion investment, the largest capital commitment to NYCHA in decades and one that…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani Expands Community-Based Violence Prevention to Bushwick, Harlem, and Washington Heights/Inwood · Oct 20, 2026In transcript

…now the Office of Community Safety is funded at north of a quarter-billion dollars. That is something that we intend to grow over our time…

Zohran MamdanispeakerMayor Mamdani and Hochul Bring 2‑K to All of the Bronx and Staten Island, Adding 10,000 Seats Across Every Borough · Oct 19, 2026In transcript

…governor of our state. And it is through her leadership that we delivered, on the eighth day of our administration, $1.2 billion toward universal childcare.

Council Member Lincoln RestlerotherMayor Mamdani and Speaker Menin Cut Red Tape to Expedite Payments for Up to 800 Nonprofits · Oct 8, 2026In transcript

…And you know, you may be asking yourselves, we have a $46 billion budget for contracts every year; $15 billion goes to nonprofits. And we're…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.