Political debates, Apr 17, 2025
Polymarket Canadian Election Debate Mentions: Poilievre
Markets
14 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada First | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Carbon Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Common Sense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| India / Indian | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pipeline | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trudeau | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| French 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Land Lumber | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariffs 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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