Will Marco Rubio say “China”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio said “China” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 29, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
In the one transcript we have (1 press briefing; May 5, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only).
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Marco Rubio
China
- Probability
- 44% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 1 transcript
- said in 0 of 1
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (1 press briefing); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…White House. You've long been a leading voice on human rights in China. And so, including religious persecution and forced organ harvesting. So, President Trump…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Marco Rubio say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Marco Rubio said “China” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 29, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jan 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Marco Rubio says “China” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Marco Rubio: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/marco-rubio/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=marco-rubio&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=marco-rubio&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP