Marco Rubio: Hearing, Jun 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Marco Rubio say during the State Department Budget Hearing?
Markets
19 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 70%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 69%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 65%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 56%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Board of Peace | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Embassy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palestine / Gaza | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | Yes | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Climate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXRUBIOMENTION-26JUN02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP