Will Joe Biden say “Democracy”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Joe Biden said “Democracy” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 1, 2024 (86%), most recently on Feb 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
54%from settlement history only · n=7counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 6/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Joe Biden
Democracy
- Probability
- 54% · n=7
- Settled
- 6/7 (86%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Joe Biden yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Joe Biden say “Democracy”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Joe Biden said “Democracy” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 1, 2024 (86%), most recently on Feb 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Joe Biden says “Democracy” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Joe Biden: ‘Democracy’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/joe-biden/words/democracy (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=joe-biden&word=democracy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=joe-biden&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP