Joe Biden: Speech, Nov 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Biden say during his speech?
Markets
21 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy | Yes | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| King | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obama | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chuck / Schumer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ice Cream | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Midterm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Pelosi | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 18%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBIDENMENTION-25NOV08 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP