Joe Biden: Interview, Jul 15, 2024
Polymarket What will Biden say during Lester Holt interview?
Markets
6 words · 3 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dictator | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ballot box | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Drop out | No | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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