Joe Biden: Speech, Apr 15, 2025
Kalshi What will Biden say at his ACRD Speech?
Markets
26 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Law | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hunter / Biden | Yes | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 50%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dictator | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abortion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Budget | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Chips | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Egg | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Layoff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medicare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Putin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Reproductive Rights | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trudeau | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| University | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Vote | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala / Harris | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Felon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Malarkey | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 24%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Jill | No | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBIDENMENTION-25APR15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP