Joe Biden: Speech, Jul 24, 2024
Polymarket What will Biden say during drop out speech?
Markets
15 words · 2 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala Harris | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Malarkey | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Anyway 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Brat | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Covid | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Resign | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sick | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Folks 3+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dementia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obama | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Jill | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Old | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Drop out | No | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-biden-say-during-drop-out-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP