Joe Biden: Remarks, Apr 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Biden say during his remarks at Syracuse University?
Markets
15 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Law / Lawyer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 52%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / TSA | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 41%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Midterm | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBIDENMENTION-26APR14B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP