Joe Biden: Speech, Aug 19, 2024
Polymarket What will Biden say during DNC speech?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Project 2025 | Yes | 34%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Convicted felon | Yes | 33%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hunter | Yes | 20%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Folks 3+ times | Yes | 19%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Old | Yes | 14%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Malarkey | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Donald Dump | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| King | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pelosi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weird/Weirdo | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Resign | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alley cat | No | 16%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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