Joe Biden: Speech, Jan 15, 2025
Polymarket What will Biden say during farewell address?
Markets
19 words · 4 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hunter | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Folks 3+ times | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afghanistan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Felon | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hope 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peaceful Transition | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Old | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pardon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Malarkey | No | 27%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Jill | No | 22%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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