Joe Biden: Speech, Feb 28, 2026
Kalshi What will Biden say during his speech?
Markets
16 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy | Yes | 50%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 46%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Covid / Pandemic | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obama | Yes | 29%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Republican | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala / Harris | No | 29%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 19%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBIDENMENTION-26FEB28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP