Will Joe Biden say “China”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Joe Biden said “China” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 8, 2025 (67%), most recently on Feb 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
49%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Joe Biden
China
- Probability
- 49% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have transcripts for Joe Biden yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Joe Biden say “China”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Joe Biden said “China” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 8, 2025 (67%), most recently on Feb 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Joe Biden says “China” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Joe Biden: ‘China’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/joe-biden/words/china (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=joe-biden&word=china · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=joe-biden&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP