Joe Biden: Interview, May 8, 2025
Kalshi What will Joe Biden say during his Appearance on The View?
Polymarket What will Joe Biden say during May 8 interview?
Markets
35 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Debate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| COVID | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kamala / Harris | Yes | 22%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | Yes | 20%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 38%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Folks | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Legacy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hunter | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Francis | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jill 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lie / Liar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afghanistan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| SCOTUS / Supreme Court | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| University | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Malarkey | No | 22%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Alley Cat | No | 19%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-joe-biden-say-during-may-8-interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP