Will Jamie Raskin say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jamie Raskin did not say “Iran” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jamie Raskin
Iran
- Probability
- 27% · n=4
- Settled
- 0/4 (0%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jamie Raskin say “Iran”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jamie Raskin did not say “Iran” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Jamie Raskin says “Iran” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jamie Raskin: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jamie-raskin/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jamie-raskin&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jamie-raskin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP