Will Jamie Raskin say “Investigate / Investigated / Investigation”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Jamie Raskin said “Investigate / Investigated / Investigation” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 12, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jamie Raskin
Investigate / Investigated / Investigation
- Probability
- 32% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 2 episodes
- said in 2 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Investigate / Investigated / Investigation |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Investigate / Investigated / Investigation | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Jamie Raskin say “Investigate / Investigated / Investigation”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Jamie Raskin said “Investigate / Investigated / Investigation” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 12, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Jamie Raskin says “Investigate / Investigated / Investigation” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jamie Raskin: ‘Investigate / Investigated / Investigation’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jamie-raskin/words/investigate-or-investigated-or-investigation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jamie-raskin&word=investigate%20%2F%20investigated%20%2F%20investigation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jamie-raskin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP