Will Jamie Raskin say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jamie Raskin said “Fraud” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 transcripts we have, of any kind (2 episodes; Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 6, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jamie Raskin
Fraud
- Probability
- 27% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 2 transcripts
- said in 1 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (2 episodes); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jamie Raskin say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jamie Raskin said “Fraud” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 5, 2026 (33%), most recently on Mar 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Jamie Raskin says “Fraud” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jamie Raskin: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jamie-raskin/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jamie-raskin&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jamie-raskin&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP